European Labour Market Barometer: European labour market still on the path to recovery despite the Russia-Ukraine war
Despite the war in Ukraine, the European Labour Market Barometer rises again in April 2022 for the fourth time in a row. Compared to March, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by one point to 104.4 points, thereby reaching its third-highest value since the time series began in summer 2018.
In April, the second barometer value of the leading indicator since the war in Ukraine began rose in most of the participating countries compared to March or remained the same. All countries whose barometers fell in March rallied again in April with there being only rather small deviations between the barometer values for the participating countries at the moment. “Many European employment services currently view the outlook for the labour markets in their countries in a similarly positive light,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast.
The outlook for the development of both unemployment and employment over the coming months continues to improve overall. However, there are large risks regarding the potential further geopolitical expansion of the Ukraine crisis or a halt in energy supplies. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 1.1 points to 103.7 points compared to March. The value therefore continues to signal a decline in unemployment in the months to come. The sub-indicator for employment growth rises by 0.8 points to 105 points, clearly lying in the positive range. “Despite the setbacks due to the war in Ukraine, the European labour market is still on the path to recovery,” emphasises Weber.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components „unemployment“ and „employment“ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at http://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.